Temperature drives inter-annual variation in badger (Meles meles) predation of lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) on Scottish hill-edge farmland

Abstract

Wading birds have declined globally, with particularly pronounced declines in western Europe. Multiple species are now on the IUCN Red List, with northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus near-threatened and declining. Historically, habitat degradation, including that from wetland drainage and agricultural intensification, has contributed to population declines. More recently, declines have been attributed to poor breeding success due to unsustainably high rates of predation on eggs and chicks by avian and mammalian predators. In the UK, the red fox Vulpes vulpes is a major mammalian predator of waders. However, the Eurasian badger Meles meles has increased in range and abundance, and can occur at high densities, with potential for acute localised predation impacts on vulnerable wader populations. Factors affecting rates of badger predation on wader nests remain unexplored. We investigated what these factors might be, analysing data from six years of lapwing nest monitoring at a breeding site in northeast Scotland. A negative impact of temperature was detected, where the overall probability of badger predation was above 0.1 when the mean daily temperature was below 4°C during the preceding 7 days, dropping close to zero when above 10°C. Badger predation on lapwing clutches also increased with earthworm availability, and interannual effects were observed matching variations in temperature, whereby intense badger predation in 2021 coincided with unseasonably cold temperatures and low lapwing breeding productivity. This highlights the potential for weather forecasting to be used to deploy pre-emptive non-lethal management strategies to mitigate badger predation impacts on lapwing nests.